"Lost"

Why yes, of course I'll be watching "Lost" tonight on ABC. It has the most crazy, convoluted plot ever on TV. A mysterious island, lots of (beautiful) people with secrets, and the most amazing season finale last spring--an unexpected flash FORWARD that showed that at least Jack and Kate got off the island.

The horror writer Steven King is a big "Lost" fan. He wrote in Entertainment Weekly that "Lost" is a groundbreaking series in so many ways--part "Twilight Zone," part "Survivor," part soap opera, part adventure, part mystery, part drama. I got a kick out of the recap show last night--they had to use subtitles just to explain the crazy plot. But I admit it--I'm hooked.

Labor Arbitration

Today was one of those days in which I really earned my pay. I spent all day representing the agency on a labor arbitration before an arbitrator. Interestingly, we did not complete the arbitration today, and are not able to resume until April 1. That poses an interesting scenario. The arbitrator could say "I rule for the grievant--April Fool!"

Santana is gone

Well, various news outlets are reporting that Johan Santana has been traded to the Mets for four prospects. That is bad news for the Twins, because they will lose the services of a two-time Cy Young award winner and arguably baseball's best pitcher. As I have said before, it is not so much that Carl Pohlad can't pay Santana what he is worth--he just does not want to.

It is also bad news for the Washington Nationals, who will have to face him this year. The only good news is that I might be able to see him pitch this summer in Washington.

The answer to yesterday's Jeopardy question? Not Alex Trebek--Simon Cowell.

Final Jeopardy! tonight

Good Final Jeopardy! question tonight. This foreign-born person, not an actor, was the highest-paid person on television in 2007.

Answer tomorrow!

The gloves come off

From today's Weekly Standard:

"There is a robust debate taking place in ahead of Tuesday's vote [in Florida]. [Yesterday], John McCain accused Mitt Romney (at first without naming him) of favoring a secret timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. Talking to reporters afterward, McCain made the accusation directly. "If we surrender and wave a white flag, like Sen. Clinton wants to do, and withdraw, as Gov. Romney wanted to do, then there will be chaos, genocide and the cost of American blood and treasure would be dramatically higher."

Romney, asked about McCain's comment, denied the accusation and demanded an apology from McCain. McCain, in a statement, then suggested Romney apologize to U.S. troops in Iraq for advocating their withdrawal. "The only people who are owed an apology are the men and women fighting for our country in Iraq, who have a right to expect their leaders to stand by them and their mission not just when it is easy, but when it matters most - when it is hard."

For me, national security issues are the most important issues in the election. McCain was a lonely voice in support of the surge last year, but the success of the surge has proven him right. He stands head and shoulders above the other candidates on national security issues, and that is why I am supporting him.

Skip "Rambo," go see "Juno" instead

61-year-old Sylvester Stallone is starring in the new "Rambo" movie this weekend. Check out this kill chart.

That is an unbelievable amount of violence for one movie. It is a celebration of death. No thanks. Instead, I am recommending a movie that celebrates life, in the form of a new baby. Go see "Juno" instead. You'll be glad you did.

"Juno" is a funny, heartwarming story of a teenager who becomes pregnant, decides to have the baby, and give it up for adoption. The performances are first-rate, including by all the supporting cast members. As a former Minnesotan, I liked that it was set in Minnesota, and liked the references to actual Minnesota cities and landmarks. It has been nominated for several Academy Awards, and truly deserves them. I have not seen "There Will be Blood" and "No Country for Old Men" and recognize that there is a place in movies for violence, but "Juno" is a story that everyone should be able to relate to. I may even take my 16-year-old daughter to see it.

New Fairfax City Library

Today Fairfax City dedicated a new library. It is quite beautiful. Here are some pictures from the event.

Capitals are hot!

Don't look now, but the Capitals are only one point out of first place in the Southeast Division after their win last night againt Toronto. Goals by Laich and Kozlov put the Caps on top.

Some may be shocked to hear this, but the Caps' best goalie is not Olaf Kolzig. It is Brent Johnson. He has a better goals-against average and it just seems that he has been playing better. Dare I say that at age 37, Kolzig is over the hill?

The Economic stimulus plan

I am pleased with the announced economic stimulus plan, however my family may not directly benefit. I do agree that the most effective way to stimulate the economy is to get more cash in circulation.

I have seen statistics that say that many Americans are woefully ignorant about the economy--they say things like "why doesn't the government just print more money" and it would solve the problem. It would just cause inflation, like in Zimbabwe, where $10 million dollars will not even buy a hamburger! We should recognize that the Federal Reserve, which regulates money supply, does a good job regulating the money supply through its use of interest rates, which causes the economy to slow down or speed up, respectively.

Heath Ledger coverage over the top

The coverage of Heath Ledger's death is getting ridiculous. This morning on Washington's Mix 107.3, DJ Jack Diamond said he was almost tempted to drive to New York yesterday to leave some flowers on Ledger's doorstep.

Let's review, Jack. A millionaire celebrity actor has a child with another celebrity actress (without being married, of course). Life is just so tough, he starts using drugs. Of course, he breaks up with the child's mother and moves to a multimillion dollar apartment in the SoHo area of New York City. You could not possibly live in California, or even Brooklyn, because that is too declasse. Your body is discovered by a masseuse who had arrived to give you a massage. The masseuse does not call 911, he calls Mary-Kate Olson.

Sure, Heath Ledger was a reasonably good actor, but if Jack Diamond feels the need to mourn, he can go over to Arlington National Cemetery right here in the Washington area and mourn someone who deserves it more. Someone who died serving his country. Maybe someone who left a spouse and child behind. Maybe someone whose name is name is "known but to God."

UPDATE: The NYC medical examiner now has ruled the death accidental, attributable to six(!) different prescription drugs, including pain and anti-anxiety drugs. It is a sobering lesson for anyone taking more than one type of drug that it is dangerous to mix prescription drugs. It is possible that doctors or pharmacists did not know what other drugs Ledger was taking.

My point about a young actor in New York still stands, however. It appears that his drug use (whether legal or illegal) was a factor in his being kicked out by his girlfriend. And if you are suffering from pain, depression and anxiety, maybe you should think about living somewhere other than Manhattan.

New Team Leader

Today I began my new "team leader" duties after Mike's departure. I gave Laurie a new case, checked on how Dorothy was doing, and gave Gordon a new project. The team also met with our GC-designate, who may be officially be named GC later this month or early next month.

I also got an email from my colleague Carol, who might be interested in the Kuwait position. That would be ironic if someone I know took the position after I declined it. I also got a call from Duane, who asked me why I declined the position, and I told him why.

College visits

Because we all had the day off today, G. and I twisted D and K's arms to visit a couple of colleges. We started by driving up to Susquehanna University in Selingsgrove, PA. We enjoyed a very nice MLK day convocation featuring the author of "The Color of Water" and pieces by the Susquehanna band, choir, and orchestra. We then enjoyed lunch with Kristin L. (one of D and K's friends from HS) and three of her friends, and walked around the campus.

Later in the day we did a self-guided tour of Gettysburg College in Gettysburg, PA. Also a very nice campus.

The kids are not very interested in colleges at this point, but it was worthwhile just to get a picture of some colleges.

Cold Sunday

It's cold here in Northern Virginia.

Went to church today; the message was on how to be more deliberate in witnessing to others about faith. Maybe I will use this blog a little more for that purpose.

Heard Tschaikovsky's "Symphony No. 4" on WETA on the way home from church. That's one of my favorite symphonies. I have played portions of it in band.

Later today we will be at a funeral for an elderly member of our church--the husband of D.'s friend's grandmother. He lived a long life and had Alzheimer's disease. I wonder if it is true that exercising your brain can ward off the disease?

This evening, I plan to watch portions of the football games and the finale of "The Amazing Race."

Capitals Hockey

As I write this, the Capitals are leading Florida 2-0. A win would get them back to .500.

The Capitals have been playing much better lately. They prevailed in a 12-round shooutout earlier this week. One of the best blogs covering the capitals is called On Frozen Blog.

Declined the Kuwait offer

Today I declined the offer from ACA and decided to stay at DISA.

It was a difficult decision, but the primary factors that led to the decision included (1) the opportunity for a promotion at DISA as a result of Mike's departure; (2) the financial aspects, because I would not get locality pay in Kuwait; (3) family considerations; (4) things that I want to do in the next year, like go to my college reunion, Nationals games, etc.; and (5) there are a lot of things that need doing here, both in my job and personally.

"American Idol", etc.

Watched "American Idol" last night with the family. It truly is great television. Really good singers, really bad singers, mostly spot-on comments by Paula Abdul, Simon Cowell and Randy Jackson. The most memorable moment was at the end, when 44-year-old Ronaldo Lopuz sang a song he had written. It was truly awful, but Paula and Randy got up to dance, and Ronaldo gave Simon a hug at the end. I have not laughed that hard in a long time.

In other news, I got the formal offer from ACA this morning, setting forth the terms of the offer (base salary, post allowance, living quarters allowance) and a departure date of 17 February. I will have more on this tomorrow.

The Michigan Republican Primary

I don't have much to say about the Michigan Democratic primary, because Edwards and Obama did not compete in the state. However, I do believe that Mitt Romney's win can be attributed to a number of factors. First, he is a Michigan native, a factor cited by 40% of voters in a CNN exit poll. Second, his father was governor of Michigan and a former American Motors auto executive. Third, Michigan's economy is the worst in the country, with a 7.5% unemployment rate. Romney promised to reinvigorate the auto industry and Michigan's economy more generally with economic stimulus through the Fed; mortgage market assistance; and tax cuts on investments and savings.

I think the results in Michigan will prove to be the exception, rather than the rule, because of the special factors listed above. Romney will not have a home-state advantage in other states, and the economy is less of an issue elsewhere. National security issues are more important in other states, which will give advantages to Giuliani and McCain.

More red tape

Yesterday I got an email from the registrar at the U of M Law School. He had been in contact with ACA's hiring officials. It seems that the problem is not the handwritten items on the transcript, but they need a sealed copy of the transcript.

What is the problem here? Do they think that I will forge my transcript, or that I did not graduate from law school? No, the problem is that some bureaucrat needs to check a box to ensure that every item is completed.

I took the Metro in to the Pentagon today, met Ms. J. outside her office, and gave her the transcript in the sealed envelope. She was very apologetic. I remarked that while I was aware the Army was not a model of efficiency, this was ridiculous. She commiserated, saying that they had been having problems with the personnel office in Germany. She said that two other people were in the same boat, and one was being held up by security clearance issues. She did say that it appeared that they had everything they need now.

In other news, DISA advertised Mike's position, with an opening date of 15 January and a closing date of 15 February. I might as well apply for it, as it is a promotion opportunity and I may well get it before I go to Kuwait.

Clinton, Obama and the war

The Democrats are involved in quite a spat over the war, with Bill Clinton saying there is no difference between Obama's voting record on the war and Hillary's. "This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen," the former President said at Dartmouth last Monday.

The truth is that Hillary voted to authorize the use of force in Afghanistan and Iraq. Obama spoke out against the war in 2002 while he was an Illinois state senator, but moderated his anti-war stance during his 2004 U.S. Senate campaign.

The problem is that BOTH major candidates have failed to recognize that while the Iraq war may have been mismanaged during its earlier stages, is is undeniable that the "surge," which began in 2007, has been a rousing success. American and Iraqi casualties have dropped significantly. Hillary memorably said that the Petraus strategy required a "willing suspension of disbelief."

Both Hillary and Obama have shifted with the political winds on the war, supporting it when it seemed popular; opposing it when it seemed unpopular; and now seem unable or unwilling to acknowledge success. Contrast their positions with McCain, who supported the war effort from the start and criticized the President for not surging soon enough.

Notes on the Economy

I was pleased to see that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is talking about cutting interest rates to avoid a recession. Signs of an economic slowdown are everywhere.

The housing market, in particular, looks to be in deep trouble. 21 percent of subprime mortgage holders are 90 days or more delinquent. Here in Northern Virginia, home prices continue to fall. Consumer spending over the holidays was down significantly. Gasoline prices are up. I read an article over the weekend that things are so bad in Detroit that portions of the city are returning to nature and prairie. Most Americans feel that a recession is coming, if we are not in one already.

Traditional economics says business cycles are inevitable, but one can cushion the blow with additional government spending or reducing taxes. Taxes are unlikely to be reduced in this Congress, but I think we can expect some action by Congress on the housing front, perhaps along the lines of additional liquidity.

Sunday notes

I was reading Garrison Keillor's "Woebegone Boy" today, and one comment jumped out at me. It was that the advent of computers make many more involved in a decision, and therefore can delay matters. I reminded me of my Kuwait delays.

Another comment I am thinking of comes from Rick Atkinson's "An Army at Dawn." The quote is, the U.S. Army doesn’t solve its problems – it overwhelms them”.

The Banita Jacks case

I've been following the horrifying case of Banita Jacks, who apparently murdered her four children back in May, and then let the bodies decompose in her SE Washington townhouse while spiraling downward. The bodies were not discovered until she was being evicted.

There is a lot of discussion about failures by various D.C. agencies, but what about personal and family responsibility? Apparently there were three rows of family members sitting in the courtroom when Ms. Jacks was arraigned earlier this week. They should be ashamed to show their faces in public. Was there not one family member who could have checked on those children, and insisted on checking on them, to the point of breaking down Ms. Jacks' door?

Saturday notes

Saw the movie "Juno" with G. last night. It was good--I hope K. and D. see it.

Did the usual Saturday errands--paid bills, got a haircut, etc.

Red Tape!

I got to work this morning and there was an email from Ms. R. in Kuwait, saying that Mr. O. in Germany must forward the final job offer and negotiate the release date before travel arrangements can be made. USACC SWA-KU is not on DTS. So, it looks like I won't leave on the 20th.

Later in the day, I got a call from Mr. Z. at ACA. He said that Mr. O. in Germany and Ms. J. in Virginia are trying to coordinate with each other. Ms. J. was concerned that my transcript had "pen and ink" items instead of being typewritten, and wondered if I could obtain a typewritten transcript. I said I doubted it, because my transcript was 20 years old, and the law school does not like to provide transcripts directly to the student. I gave him the number of the law school registrar.

Later in the day, the U of MN registrar emails me, saying he got a voicemail from Mr. Z., but misheard his name and telephone number. I emailed him back, explaining the situation, and asking him for any help he could provide. The registrar emailed me back, saying he called Mr. Z. back and left a message.

Death of a traitor

Traitor Phillip Agee died in Cuba yesterday of a perforated ulcer. Hope he liked that Cuban medical care.

Agee, a former CIA agent, made it his mission to expose CIA agents around the world. For example, in 1975, Richard Welch was murdered in Greece after publication of an article in an English-language newspaper naming Welch as Chief of Station. In 1980, after Agee's principal collaborator named Richard Kinsman as CIA Chief of Station in Jamaica, his house was strafed with gunfire. In 1981 two CIA agents were assassinated in El Salvador after a front company was exposed by Agee in his book CIA Diary.

Agee has a small role in the Iran hostage crisis. Following the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Iran in 1979, more than 50 Americans were held hostage and some were alleged to be CIA agents. Agee offered to help the Iranian "students" identify the CIA agents. After the government moved to revoke his passport, he sued the Secretary of State, ultimately losing in a case called Haig v. Agee.

Further Kuwait update

Today I got an email from my Kuwait contact, asking if I had completed the required training, and saying I needed additional training. I forwarded certificates of completion of my previous courses, and passed online courses on contracts and ethics. I was a little nervous because both courses had tests at the end and required a 100% pass rate. I did not pass each of them the first time, but passed each of them the second time.

Kuwait Update

I got a phone call from Duane Z., the hiring attorney at ACA. He was somewhat apologetic about the delays. Apparently they are hiring another attorney, and maybe a third, and all of us are in the same boat. Apparently, the personnel official in Germany seems to be holding things up, and he took a long holiday vacation from 21 December through 2 January. Duane told me to make tentative travel plans on DTS, so I made tentative reservations on 20 January on a United flight that leaves at 950 p.m., arriving in Kuwait the next day.

Goose Gossage and Bert Blyleven

Congratulations to Goose Gossage, who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame yesterday. He redefined the role of the relief pitcher, and was a dominant closer for the White Sox, Yankees, and other teams. I am not sure I ever saw him pitch live, though.

One pitcher I have seen pitch live, and who is deserving of the Hall of Fame, is Bert Blyleven. Pitching for the Minnesota Twins in the 1970s, he had one of the best curve balls ever, and one of the most dominating pitchers of his era. Blyleven got 60% of the vote this year, not enough for election to the Hall of Fame, but up from his tally the prior year. Let's hope that he gets in next year.

Congratulations to Clinton and McCain

for winning yesterday's Democratic and Republican New Hampshire primaries. I'm getting dizzy from the back-and-forth nature of this race. Now I think that Clinton and McCain will get their respective party nominations, with Clinton going on to win the White House. Of course, this may change next week!

Next time sink 'em

Yesterday's incident in the Strait of Hormuz, in which five Iranian speedboats provoked U.S. warships, brought to mind the U.S.S. Cole incident, in which a small al Qaeda speedboat nearly sunk the U.S.S. Cole with explosives. The Cole explosion killed 17 sailors and injured scores in 2000.

Iran was no doubt trying to send a message to President Bush, who leaves this week on a trip to the Middle East.

There is even a suggestion that Iran is trying to get a seat on the U.N. security council.

The region is doubtful about America's commitment to confront Tehran and its nuclear ambitions, but President Bush continues to be determined.

Coming close to U.S. warships in international waters is an unacceptable provocation. Next time, the U.S. Navy should just sink the Iranian ships with well-aimed gunfire.

Update: US Navy video of the incident, from ABC News.

The President's trip to the Mideast

I got off work today because the window on my office were being bomb-proofed. A reminder of the continuing war we are facing.

I know this news item has gotten lost in the election hoopla, but the President is flying to the Middle East this week. He'll be going to Israel, the West Bank, Kuwait (including Camp Arifjan), Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. One of his goals is to stiffen resistance to Iran.

Adam Gadhan, the American-born Al Qaeda spokesperson, has called for the president to be received with "bombs and booby-trapped vehicles.

UPDATE: Yesterday, McCain also brought up the case of Adam Gadahn, the American who joined al-Qaeda and tore up his passport in a newly-released propaganda tape. “Someday, I’ll make that young man regret that he tore up his American passport,” McCain said, to great applause. You got the idea that McCain wouldn’t mind doing it personally.

I like.

"Hiring" the President

What is really going on right now is the world's greatest job interview. The interviewers are the American people, and the job is President of the United States.

I was struck by Bob Shrum's comment in today's New York Daily News:

"The pursuit of the Presidency is not a resume contest. Otherwise, a one-term Congressman named Lincoln would not have defeated Stephen Douglas, the "little giant" of American politics. Kennedy never would have prevailed against Nixon, and the young Bill Clinton never would have ousted the first George Bush from the White House."

Consider JFK's qualifications. He had been a lieutenant in WW2. He had served 14 years in Congress, 7 as a Senator. He had written two books, the Pulitzer-prize winning "Profiles in Courage" and "While England Slept," an analysis of British failures leading up to WW2. Kennedy made many missteps in his first year in office, including the Bay of Pigs, the Khruschev conference in Vienna (in which Khruschev was emboldened), and the construction of the Berlin Wall, which Kennedy was unable to stop.

It's true, a resume can get you in the door, but what really seals the deal is the job interview.

Thinking about Barack Obama, the first thing that jumps out to me is that he is actually younger than me by a few months. My natural reaction is--THIS is the representation of my generation that will win the White House?

I have posted before about generational shifts, and that there is a good likelihood of a generational shift this year because the median-age voter was born in 1963 and has very little memory of the 1970s. Obama grew up abroad and in Hawaii; went to Harvard Law School; worked as a community organizer, civil rights lawyer, law professor and Illinois State legislator before being elected to one term in the U.S. Senate.

How does this make one qualified for the Presidency? Sure, Lincoln had less political experience, but very few presidential candidates have had a resume this thin. Contrast this to Senator McCain, who graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy; commanded a Naval squadron; was a POW in Vietnam; and has served in the House and the Senate since 1982. McCain was in Congress when Obama was still in college. He's old enough to be Obama's father.

Obama has a disturbingly thin record when it comes to foreign policy. And one of his top foreign policy advisors, Zbigniew Brzezinksi, does not inspire confidence because he served in that role in the Carter administration.

But it's not just the resume, i.e. what they have done in the past. It is about what they would like to do in the future, and how they would attempt to do it. Obama's mantra, "change," is off-putting for me, much like Gary Hart's "new ideas" mantra in 1984 (you can expect a "where's the beef" response soon). Checks and balances are often a good thing, and with a Democratic Congress likely to continue, it may be necessary to have a Republican President to check their excesses.

And, as I have said before, to me the most important issue is the war on Islamic extremism, and who can best lead this effort. Although some say that the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq are different wars, to me it is all part of the same war, as events in Pakistan and elsewhere show. As Andrew McCarthy wrote,

"Jihadists are not going to be wished away, rule-of-lawed into submission, or democratized out of existence. If you really want democracy and the rule of law in places like Pakistan, you must kill the jihadists first. Or they'll kill you, just like they killed Benazir Bhutto." So for me, the issue is, which candidate will commit to prosecuting the war on Islamic extremism.

Epiphany

Today is the day of Epiphany. Today in church we heard the story of the visit of the astrologers to King Herod, and how they were given a sign that Jesus was coming. Herod reacted violently, slaughtering all children under two in Bethlehem.

It is a dramatic story. I once heard an astronomer named Karlis Kaufmanis speak at the University of Minnesota speak, and he spoke about astrological evidence suggesting that the star was a conjunction of three planets in the sky.

Herod was the Saddam Hussein of his day, propped up by Rome, collecting oppressive taxes, using forced labor to build cities, and using police state tactics. No wonder he was afraid of being overthrown. However, Jesus did not come as a political leader, as would eventually be clear.

The Generational Divide

After watching Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton speak on CSPAN yesterday, I think for the first time that Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination. He is a much better speaker than Hillary, even though he speaks in generalities ("change, hope,") etc. If McCain gets the Republican nomination, it will create quite a generational divide. Obama is young enough to be McCain's son.

Huckabee's good "Tonight Show" Line

Mike Huckabee had a good line on the Tonight Show earlier this week: "People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off."

Romney felt a mark from that one.

Tim Pawlenty and "Generation Jones"

Katherine Kersten of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has a good column today, arguing that the results of today's Iowa caucuses will not matter that much, and that it may well be decided at this summer's convention in St. Paul. She also argues that it should shine a favorable spotlight on my law-school classmate, Tim Pawlenty, who could even be a Vice-Presidential candidate.

Tim has endorsed John McCain, and he would be a terrific candidate. He's a smart guy, has been elected statewide in Minnesota twice, and has gotten a lot done in Minnesota, even with a Democratic legislature. If you think I am happy about McCain's prospects now, I will be ecstatic about a McCain-Pawlenty ticket. Tim could help the Republican party carry Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Which gets me to my second point. There is a generation of Americans born between 1954 and 1965 that some demographers call "Generation Jones." My generation's 53 million members constitute 1 in 4 adults in the U.S. today. I would argue that my generation has decided each presidential election since 1980 with pluralities voting for Reagan (1980), Reagan (1984), George H.W. Bush (1988), Clinton (1992), Clinton (1996), George W. Bush (2000) and George W. Bush (2004). I (born in 1961) voted for Clinton twice and George W. Bush twice. My wife (born in 1963) has voted for EVERY presidential winner.

This year, for the first time, we have TWO members of this generation running for President. Mike Huckabee is 52 and Barack Obama is 46. All the other candidates are older (Romney, 60; Thompson, 67; McCain, 71; Paul, 72; Hunter, 59; Clinton, 60; Edwards, 54; Biden, 65; Dodd, 63; Kucinich, 61; Richardson, 60). One unnoticed reason why Huckabee and Obama have been doing well is that they are the youngest candidates in the field and they appeal to members of my generation. It might well be that the Baby Boomer's time has passed and it is time for a new generation to take over. Baby Boomers (aged 53-64) now consitute 16% of the adult generation, while mature generations (older than 65) constitute 20% of the adult generation. Generation X (28-40 years old is 21% of the adult population, and Generation Y (18-27) is 17% of the adult population. What is often unnoticed is that my generation (born from 1954 to 1965) is actually LARGER than the baby boom generation (born from 1946 through 1953) because it constitutes 26% (1 in 4) of the adult population.

Some pundits seem to be surprised and confused that Huckabee and Obama have burst upon the scene and have been leading in many polls. I am not surprised, because it is a sign of the new generation flexing its muscles. While my generation may not be able to elect one of its own as President this year, it should at least be possible for one of our own to be Vice President (for example, Bayh, Obama, Huckabee and Pawlenty are among the most talked-about). It seems to make sense that both parties would feel that it is time for a Generation Jones candidate to be Vice President, if not President.

Is a recession likely?

I'm no economist, but as of today, I'm officially a pessimist about the economy in 2008. I had been somewhat of an optimist, but I think yesterday was the point that finally tipped me over. It was a combination of things--the $100 per barrel oil, weakness in the stock market, continued weakness in the housing market, and indications that Americans are having credit problems generally.

A recession generally bodes ill for the incumbent party, and I feel that government can only do things at the margins to help. Raising taxes would only hurt the economy; the best thing the government can do is control spending, particularly on entitlements like Social Security and Medicare (I know, wishful thinking). One more reason to consider John McCain for President--he has shown a willingness to control spending that other candidates have not.

Oh, and I think the average housing price nationwide will decline by 4-14% this year.

The Iowa caucuses

I am going to ignore the results of the Iowa caucuses.

For one thing, it is antidemocratic. Only people who can afford to spend two hours talking politics on an evening are represented, so that excludes many working people, the sick, the old, and many others. It also attracts the extremist wings of both parties. And, while it pains me to say this as a former Minnesotan, Iowa is not representative of the United States. It is too rural, too elderly, too white, too agricultural, and does not have enough contact with defense and military issues.

I lived in Des Moines from 1986-1988 and attended the 1988 Iowa caucuses. As a 26-year-old, I liked Bruce Babbitt because he was talking about Social Security reform, but I eventually switched to Paul Simon because I liked his values and he made a real effort to campaign in the state. Plus there were more hot chicks working for the Simon campaign, and the Dukakis campaign volunteers were snobby Easterners (note--this may explain some of the appeal of Barack Obama). During that year, I also met Bob Dole and Jesse Jackson.

Dick Gephardt won the Democratic caucus that year, eventually losing to Michael Dukakis. Bob Dole won the Republican caucus, with Robertson in second and George H.W. Bush in third. Gephardt? Robertson? Dole? I liked Dole, and think he would have been a reasonably good President, but to think that Iowans thought that Robertson and Dole were better qualified to be President than George H.W. Bush is simply ridiculous.

Therefore, I plan to ignore the results of the Iowa caucus and wait for results from other states (like New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida) before making up my mind. I have made no secret that I like McCain the best at this point, but if his campaign fizzles, I will look elsewhere for my candidate.

Capitals game

Gena and I went to the Capitals game today. The Caps won! Here are some pictures.

Happy New Year!

Last night we went to a New Year's Eve party at the E's house.