Tim Pawlenty and "Generation Jones"

Katherine Kersten of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has a good column today, arguing that the results of today's Iowa caucuses will not matter that much, and that it may well be decided at this summer's convention in St. Paul. She also argues that it should shine a favorable spotlight on my law-school classmate, Tim Pawlenty, who could even be a Vice-Presidential candidate.

Tim has endorsed John McCain, and he would be a terrific candidate. He's a smart guy, has been elected statewide in Minnesota twice, and has gotten a lot done in Minnesota, even with a Democratic legislature. If you think I am happy about McCain's prospects now, I will be ecstatic about a McCain-Pawlenty ticket. Tim could help the Republican party carry Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Which gets me to my second point. There is a generation of Americans born between 1954 and 1965 that some demographers call "Generation Jones." My generation's 53 million members constitute 1 in 4 adults in the U.S. today. I would argue that my generation has decided each presidential election since 1980 with pluralities voting for Reagan (1980), Reagan (1984), George H.W. Bush (1988), Clinton (1992), Clinton (1996), George W. Bush (2000) and George W. Bush (2004). I (born in 1961) voted for Clinton twice and George W. Bush twice. My wife (born in 1963) has voted for EVERY presidential winner.

This year, for the first time, we have TWO members of this generation running for President. Mike Huckabee is 52 and Barack Obama is 46. All the other candidates are older (Romney, 60; Thompson, 67; McCain, 71; Paul, 72; Hunter, 59; Clinton, 60; Edwards, 54; Biden, 65; Dodd, 63; Kucinich, 61; Richardson, 60). One unnoticed reason why Huckabee and Obama have been doing well is that they are the youngest candidates in the field and they appeal to members of my generation. It might well be that the Baby Boomer's time has passed and it is time for a new generation to take over. Baby Boomers (aged 53-64) now consitute 16% of the adult generation, while mature generations (older than 65) constitute 20% of the adult generation. Generation X (28-40 years old is 21% of the adult population, and Generation Y (18-27) is 17% of the adult population. What is often unnoticed is that my generation (born from 1954 to 1965) is actually LARGER than the baby boom generation (born from 1946 through 1953) because it constitutes 26% (1 in 4) of the adult population.

Some pundits seem to be surprised and confused that Huckabee and Obama have burst upon the scene and have been leading in many polls. I am not surprised, because it is a sign of the new generation flexing its muscles. While my generation may not be able to elect one of its own as President this year, it should at least be possible for one of our own to be Vice President (for example, Bayh, Obama, Huckabee and Pawlenty are among the most talked-about). It seems to make sense that both parties would feel that it is time for a Generation Jones candidate to be Vice President, if not President.