The Michigan Republican Primary

I don't have much to say about the Michigan Democratic primary, because Edwards and Obama did not compete in the state. However, I do believe that Mitt Romney's win can be attributed to a number of factors. First, he is a Michigan native, a factor cited by 40% of voters in a CNN exit poll. Second, his father was governor of Michigan and a former American Motors auto executive. Third, Michigan's economy is the worst in the country, with a 7.5% unemployment rate. Romney promised to reinvigorate the auto industry and Michigan's economy more generally with economic stimulus through the Fed; mortgage market assistance; and tax cuts on investments and savings.

I think the results in Michigan will prove to be the exception, rather than the rule, because of the special factors listed above. Romney will not have a home-state advantage in other states, and the economy is less of an issue elsewhere. National security issues are more important in other states, which will give advantages to Giuliani and McCain.