Is a recession likely?

I'm no economist, but as of today, I'm officially a pessimist about the economy in 2008. I had been somewhat of an optimist, but I think yesterday was the point that finally tipped me over. It was a combination of things--the $100 per barrel oil, weakness in the stock market, continued weakness in the housing market, and indications that Americans are having credit problems generally.

A recession generally bodes ill for the incumbent party, and I feel that government can only do things at the margins to help. Raising taxes would only hurt the economy; the best thing the government can do is control spending, particularly on entitlements like Social Security and Medicare (I know, wishful thinking). One more reason to consider John McCain for President--he has shown a willingness to control spending that other candidates have not.

Oh, and I think the average housing price nationwide will decline by 4-14% this year.